China Tire Industry Split
The domestic tire industry is currently exhibiting a clear structural differentiation. Supported by both an improved export environment in the EU and a surge in overseas stockpiling before the Spring Festival, semi-steel tire manufacturers are seeing significantly better order intake and production scheduling than all-steel tire manufacturers.
In stark contrast, all-steel tire manufacturers are experiencing a steady decline in orders due to persistently weak domestic replacement market demand. This uneven performance within the industry is becoming increasingly apparent, a difference clearly reflected in recent company shutdowns and holiday arrangements, as well as market data.
The robust performance of the semi-steel tire market is primarily attributed to the recovery in orders resulting from easing export pressure from the EU, and the concentrated stockpiling by overseas customers before the Spring Festival. In May and November 2025, the EU initiated anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations into Chinese semi-steel tires, respectively, initially causing export anxiety within the industry.
However, on December 18, 2025, the European Commission announced that it would not take temporary measures, greatly alleviating companies' export concerns and driving a significant recovery in orders to the European market in the first quarter of 2026.
It is understood that the EU is a major export destination for Chinese semi-steel tires. In 2024, the EU imported approximately 0.9 billion semi-steel tires from China, accounting for 60% of its imports from non-EU member states.
Although the final results of the anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations have not yet been announced, the temporary suspension of the measures has provided a window of opportunity for Chinese semi-steel tire exports.
Adding to this, the seasonal factor of the approaching Spring Festival in 2026 has prompted overseas distributors to launch pre-holiday stockpiling plans to mitigate supply risks from logistical disruptions and production capacity interruptions during the holiday, further boosting export orders for semi-steel tires. Reflecting on the production side, semi-steel tire companies have recently shown high production enthusiasm, with holiday shutdowns characterized by "late shutdowns and early resumptions."
According to a survey, during the 2026 Spring Festival, key sample companies of semi-steel tires plan to have an average holiday of approximately 9.17 days, nearly one day less than the same period last year. More than 51% of the sample companies plan to start production shutdowns on or after the 25th day of the twelfth lunar month, while two other companies indicated they will maintain normal production schedules during the Spring Festival. 87% of the companies plan to resume work between the fifth and eighth days of the first lunar month to ensure order delivery.
Meanwhile, the all-steel tire market faces significant pressure from weak domestic demand, with orders continuing to decline. Demand for all-steel tires mainly relies on the domestic commercial vehicle replacement market and logistics-related sectors. Recently, affected by the macroeconomic environment and the logistics industry's performance, end-user demand has been weak, and the replacement market has been lackluster.
In January 2026, some all-steel tire manufacturers, in an effort to meet their annual sales targets, pushed inventory onto distribution channels through promotional policies, leading to a significant increase in social inventory levels. However, the end-user digestion was slow, further transmitting inventory pressure to the production side, making companies more cautious about accepting orders.
From a production arrangement perspective, all-steel tire companies' plans for production shutdowns and holidays were relatively conservative, with no significant reduction. Data shows that the average planned holiday days for sample all-steel tire companies during the Spring Festival were approximately 11.86 days, only slightly lower than the same period last year by 0.43 days.
More than 77% of the sample companies planned to gradually suspend production after the 20th day of the twelfth lunar month, with nearly half choosing to suspend production between the 20th and 22nd days of the twelfth lunar month.
The urgency to resume production after the holiday was far less than that of semi-steel tire companies. This arrangement serves both as a normal holiday break and, more importantly, as a way to alleviate post-holiday inventory pressure and address the challenge of insufficient end-user demand.
Looking at the overall industry performance, as of February 9, 2026, the Tire & Rubber (A-share) Index closed at 3431.22, showing a recent trend of fluctuation and adjustment. However, there is significant differentiation within the sector, with semi-steel tire companies benefiting from the export recovery performing relatively steadily.
Currently, the domestic tire industry is undergoing a period of deep adjustment. Semi-steel tires have demonstrated strong resilience thanks to export orders, while all-steel tires need to wait for the recovery of the domestic commercial vehicle market and the improvement in the logistics industry to drive a rebound in replacement market demand.
It is expected that this structural differentiation will continue in the short term, and industry companies will adjust their production and export strategies according to their own product structure characteristics to cope with market changes.
