August 28 Natural Rubber & Carbon Black Prices
Natural Rubber Price Trends
According to data from Jintou.com, on August 28, the main rubber price was 15,800 yuan/ton, the 2511 rubber contract was 14,800 yuan/ton, and the 2601 rubber contract was 15,820 yuan/ton. This was slightly lower than the 15,870 yuan/ton price of the main rubber contract on August 18, with relatively stable fluctuations.
A previous analysis on August 25 noted that the improving macroeconomic environment and typhoon-induced supply disruptions in producing areas were key factors supporting high prices. The Federal Reserve's failure to signal strong hawkishness rekindled market expectations of a September rate cut, boosting commodity sentiment.
Typhoons in Southeast Asia and other producing regions hampered raw material supply, providing cost support for rubber prices. However, the suspension of some rubber production plants in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region limited further upward momentum, causing natural rubber to continue its slightly stronger consolidation.
By August 28th, barring any new major news shocks, based on previous trends, natural rubber prices are likely to remain volatile in the short term, fluctuating around current levels. These prices will be constrained by demand bottlenecks on the upside and supported by factors such as costs and macroeconomic expectations on the downside.
Carbon Black Price Market
While there are no direct quotes for carbon black on August 28th, a rough estimate can be made based on recent trends. According to Sino-Foreign Exchange data, the benchmark price for carbon black on August 25th was 7,270 yuan/ton, and the market price for N220 rubber-grade carbon black in Hebei was 7,000 yuan/ton. Prices have fluctuated slightly upward since mid-August, primarily driven by the combined impact of raw material coal tar prices and supply and demand dynamics.
On the raw material side, news on August 22nd indicated a decline in coal tar prices, with prices in Shandong and Hebei hovering around 3,650 yuan/ton, while prices in Anhui reached 3,565 yuan/ton. Prices in Shanxi have fallen by 100 yuan compared to previous levels. Although cost support has weakened, carbon black companies, facing prolonged losses, are strongly motivated to stabilize prices.
On the supply side, major factories in Shanxi are undergoing maintenance, while those in Shandong are undergoing rotational maintenance. Smaller factories are operating at reduced capacity. Carbon black production capacity fell to 60.07% in the week of August 19-25. This tightening supply is contributing to price stability. On the demand side, semi-steel tire production capacity is at 73.89%, while full-steel tire production capacity is at 64.82%.
Tire factories are scheduling production and destocking well, demonstrating strong demand. However, tire companies remain cautious in accepting shipments, primarily relying on strong demand to replenish inventory, making significant price increases difficult.
