Natural Rubber Market : Tight & Price Outlook

As of February 12, 2026, the domestic and international natural rubber markets exhibited a subtle adjustment in supply and demand, with prices fluctuating within a range. Driven by a slowdown in global supply growth and structural growth in downstream demand, the natural rubber market is gradually transitioning from a loose to a "tight balance," with short-term volatility narrowing and a clear upward trend in long-term value.

Domestic: Tightening Supply During the Off-Peak Season, New Energy Demand Becomes a Key Variable

Currently, the main producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan have fully entered the off-peak season, with new supply suspended. Market supply mainly relies on inventory digestion and imports. This seasonal "vacuum" on the supply side provides underlying support for prices.

In terms of price performance, there are significant regional and grade price differences. The reference price for Yunnan standard rubber SCR5 is in the range of 14,100-15,800 yuan/ton, while the price of Hainan full-latex SCRWF is approximately 15,400 yuan/ton. In Qingdao, due to the transmission of import costs, the mainstream price for Vietnamese 3L rubber has reached 16,550-16,650 yuan/ton, indicating that the premium for higher-grade rubber varieties is strengthening.

Inventory structure is tight. Domestic dry rubber inventory accumulation is expected to be limited in 2025, and current inventory levels are at a historically low level, resulting in limited selling pressure and providing a buffer for price stabilization.

On the demand side, short-term weakness coexists with long-term resilience. Affected by the approaching Spring Festival, downstream tire factory operating rates are seasonally declining, and purchasing sentiment is becoming more cautious.

However, it is worth noting that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to climb—domestic sales of new energy vehicles increased by 32.7% year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2025, and the demand for high-performance tires for these vehicles is growing by more than 20%. At the same time, the 359 million vehicles in circulation provide a solid foundation for the replacement tire market, and the resilience of demand should not be underestimated.

On the futures market, Shanghai rubber futures continued to fluctuate between 15,800 and 16,700 yuan/ton. The main contract closed at 16,450 yuan/ton on February 12, a slight decrease of 0.51% for the day, but a cumulative increase of 1.70% over the past five trading days, with the market still awaiting a directional breakout.

International: Supply Ceiling Looms, Costs and Trade Barriers in Dual Battle

Global natural rubber supply is experiencing structural contraction. Production in major Southeast Asian producing regions—Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam—is trending downwards.

Thailand's production recovery is limited due to aging rubber plantations and the conversion of some plantations to high-value-added cash crops such as durian.

Indonesia's production in the first three quarters of 2025 plummeted by 26% compared to the same period in 2023.

Vietnam's production declined by 8.46% during the same period

Although emerging producing regions in Africa, such as Côte d'Ivoire, are rapidly rising and have become the world's third-largest rubber producer, they are still unable to fully fill the supply gap in Southeast Asia. The global natural rubber supply ceiling is shifting downwards.

Cost pressures continue to intensify. The shortage of rubber tappers in Southeast Asia is worsening, leading to continuously rising labor costs. Coupled with rising agricultural input prices, this is pushing the global natural rubber cost center upwards systematically, providing long-term support for prices.

Demand is growing moderately, with significant regional differentiation. Jiantou Futures predicts that global natural rubber demand will be approximately 14.8 million tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 1%. Among them:

As the world's third-largest automobile market, India's demand for rubber in the automotive industry is expected to exceed 800,000 tons in 2025, becoming an important growth point for overseas demand.

The EU's anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations against Chinese semi-steel tire exports are suppressing the elasticity of global rubber demand, and the risk of trade barriers still needs to be guarded against.

Price linkage has strengthened. On February 12, the price of standard rubber at Indonesian ports was US$1935/ton, and the market price of African TSR10 rubber was US$1920/ton, generally following the fluctuations in the domestic market, with limited impact from fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate.

Outlook: Short-term flat but long-term upward trend remains unchanged

Overall, as of mid-February 2026, the natural rubber market is in a phase of mutual offsetting between "expectations of tightening supply" and "short-term off-season demand."

In the short term, the Spring Festival factor suppresses downstream purchasing intentions, and prices lack the driving force for a significant increase; fluctuations will remain the main theme.

In the long term, the supply contraction in Southeast Asian producing areas has moved from expectation to reality, while the continued high prosperity of the domestic new energy vehicle market will lead to considerable growth in demand for high-end rubber. Both supply and demand point to a single trend: the central price of natural rubber is expected to steadily rise.

For tire manufacturers, the current stage requires greater vigilance against the risk of price spikes due to low inventory levels. Rationally planning procurement schedules and appropriately extending inventory build-up periods are pragmatic strategies to cope with raw material cost fluctuations.

For market participants, weather conditions in production areas, the progress of downstream resumption of work, and the direction of global macroeconomic policies remain the core variables for the next stage of trading.