Domestic and international rubber market conditions on April 14, 2025

On April 14, 2025, the domestic and international rubber markets showed a complex and multifaceted market situation, covering the combined impact of futures price fluctuations, changes in the supply and demand structure, and macroeconomic factors.

Supply-side situation ​

Domestic ​

The domestic Yunnan and Hainan production areas are gradually entering the harvesting period, and the supply is expected to increase significantly. The harvesting progress in the Yunnan production area has accelerated this year, which has led to a rapid increase in the supply of rubber in the market in the short term, which has put a certain downward pressure on domestic and even international rubber prices. From a long-term perspective, with the continuous improvement of planting technology and the gradual maturity of new plantations, the potential supply of domestic natural rubber will further increase. At the end of March, some rubber plantations in the Yunnan production area had been tested on a small scale, and the price of raw rubber (dry rubber) was 16,100 yuan/ton, while the Hainan and Guangdong production areas had not yet started harvesting. ​

International ​

As the world's largest natural rubber supplier, Southeast Asia currently has relatively stable weather conditions, which is conducive to rubber production by rubber trees, and the overall supply is on an increasing trend. The output of major rubber producing countries such as Thailand and Indonesia is expected to increase steadily with stable climatic conditions. According to the monitoring of the Agricultural Reclamation Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in March, the average price of Thailand's No. 3 smoked rubber sheet (RSS3) was US$2,378/ton, a month-on-month decrease of US$70/ton; the average price of Indonesia's No. 20 standard rubber (SIR20) was US$1,954/ton, a month-on-month decrease of US$30/ton.

Demand side situation

Domestic

Domestic rubber demand is constrained by many factors. As the largest demand area for rubber, the tire industry currently has a stable overall operating rate for tire companies, but the finished product inventory pressure is relatively large. From a macro perspective, although the national truck scrapping and renewal policy has been implemented and effective, and the automobile industry has entered the traditional peak season of demand, the domestic auto market production and sales are expected to pick up, and tire companies will maintain stable domestic sales and maintain rigid procurement. However, the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the US government have had a serious impact on the global trade pattern, and domestic small and medium-sized tire companies are facing great pressure to export, which has to some extent suppressed the growth of domestic rubber demand.​

International​

Take the major automobile consumer markets such as the United States and Europe as an example. The local tire replacement demand is weak, and the consumer tire replacement cycle is extended, resulting in tire companies not having a strong willingness to purchase rubber. The uncertainty of global economic growth and changes in trade policies, especially the tariff measures of the United States on China and other countries, have seriously affected the demand for rubber. As an important rubber consumer and tire exporter in the world, China's tariff policy has made China's tire exports face difficulties, which in turn reduced the demand for rubber. This demand uncertainty has produced a chain reaction in the international rubber market.