Domestic and international rubber market situation on April 17, 2025

1. Domestic market: two-way squeeze of supply increase and weak demand

Spot market: prices under pressure to fall

Natural rubber: Shanghai full latex spot price is 14,500 yuan/ton, 140 yuan/ton discount to the main futures contract (14,640 yuan/ton), reflecting the light transaction in the spot market. The price of Thai mixed in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 14,800 yuan/ton, a sharp drop of 1,200 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the import profit narrowed to -4,842 yuan/ton, and traders' willingness to support prices weakened.

Synthetic rubber: Styrene butadiene rubber (1502) price is 12,500-13,800 yuan/ton, butadiene rubber (BR9000) is 12,500-16,500 yuan/ton, and the price gap with natural rubber has widened to 2,000-3,000 yuan/ton, and the substitution effect has increased.

Futures market: Short-selling dominates the shock

Shanghai rubber main contract: closed down 0.65% to 14,640 yuan/ton on April 17, with a weekly decline of 2.24%. Technical indicators show a short arrangement, RSI index 37.01 (oversold range), MACD dead cross operation, short-term pressure.

Inventory pressure: Natural rubber social inventory increased to 1.3793 million tons (+8,812 tons), Qingdao Port inventory 620,700 tons (+823 tons), coupled with Yunnan and Hainan accelerated harvesting, supply-side pressure is prominent.

Demand side: Tire enterprise operating rate declines

Semi-steel tire operating load: 78.15%, down 3.23 percentage points from last week, factory inventory backlogs caused some enterprises to reduce load operation.

Full steel tire operating load: 66.13%, a slight increase of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year, but export orders are affected by US tariff policies (such as the EUDR Act), and overseas demand uncertainty has increased.

Policies and costs:

Domestic policies: Yunnan and Hainan promote high-quality development of the rubber industry, aiming to achieve a comprehensive output value of 100 billion yuan in 2030, but short-term policy dividends have not yet been released.

Raw material costs: The price of Thai glue is 68.19 baht/kg (high year-on-year), and rubber farmers are willing to tap rubber, but the compression of processing profits has led to production cuts in some factories.

2. International market: loose supply and geopolitical risks intertwined

Dynamics of major producing countries:

Thailand: USS3 spot prices rose to 48.11-48.59 baht/kg, and sales increased to 27 tons, but continued heavy rains in the south may delay the progress of tapping, and the amount of new rubber on the market is expected to increase in May.

Indonesia: Rubber exports fell by 7.3% in 2024, and exports to China decreased by 21%, but new rubber was gradually put on the market in April, and the ANRPC forecast that global production would increase by 0.3% in 2025, and the expectation of loose supply was strengthened.

Vietnam: The harvesting season started in mid-April, with the purchase price of rubber at 410VND/kg. The factory resumption was delayed, and the raw material output is expected to increase significantly in June.

Trade and policy:

US tariffs: A 125% tariff was imposed on Chinese tires (superimposed on Section 232 and reciprocal tariffs), but Chinese tires are still competitive due to their cost-effectiveness (20%-30% lower than Europe and the United States), and export volume may be under pressure in the short term.

EU policy: The implementation of the EUDR Act requires the rubber supply chain to be "deforestation-free", and small and medium-sized rubber farmers in Southeast Asia face certification pressure, which may push up raw material costs in the long term.

Futures market:

Japanese rubber (JRU): closed down 1.2% to 245.3 yen/kg on April 17, affected by the increase in Thai supply and fluctuations in crude oil prices.
Singapore TF rubber: The main contract is US$1,780/ton (-US$170), reflecting the weakness of the Southeast Asian spot market.