Regional Trends & Commercial Vehicle Shifts

According to an LMC Automotive report, the global light vehicle market is projected to experience a moderate recovery in 2025, with total sales reaching 91.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%.

December's seasonally adjusted annualized sales fell to 93 million units per year, indicating a slight slowdown in market activity towards the end of the year. Regional market performance varied significantly, with policy guidance and industry trends jointly driving growth.

The North American market saw some fluctuations. US sales in December declined 1.4% year-on-year to 1.49 million units, ending the year with 16.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with the growth rate leveling off. Canadian sales in December are expected to decline 10.5% year-on-year to 125,000 units, but seasonally adjusted annualized sales rebounded month-on-month, rising from 1.81 million units per year in November to 1.94 million units per year, with total sales for the year reaching 1.87 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%.

The Mexican market performed strongly, with December sales increasing by 5.6% to 164,000 units. Full-year sales are only 7,000 units away from the 2016 record high, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.3%.

The European market saw increasing divergence. Western Europe saw December sales increase by 3.2% year-on-year to 1.17 million units, with full-year sales reaching 13.42 million units, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3%.

Among the five major markets, Germany continued its leading growth momentum, while the UK and Italy saw steady recovery. Spain experienced its first sales decline in over a year, and France remained sluggish due to economic and political headwinds.

Eastern Europe saw a slight decrease in annualized sales to 4.88 million units in December. The Russian market saw a 7.9% month-on-month increase and a slight 0.3% year-on-year decrease in December, marking the second-highest increase this year. Turkey's passenger car market saw its tenth consecutive month of year-on-year growth, with December sales reaching 146,000 units.

The Asian market showed diverse performance. China's passenger vehicle sales fell 17.4% year-on-year in December. Light vehicle sales are projected to reach 27.6 million units in 2026, a 2.7% increase year-on-year, while commercial vehicle growth (11.3%) significantly outpaced passenger vehicle growth (1.6%). However, after the effects of policy stimulus fade, sales may fall back to 25.8 million units by 2028.

Japan's annual sales reached 4.53 million units, a 3.3% increase year-on-year, with a projected further 3.7% increase in 2026. However, market confidence and financing pressures pose potential risks. South Korea's annual sales reached 1.65 million units, a 3.5% increase year-on-year, but still the second worst performance in nearly a decade, indicating a limited recovery.

South America became a bright spot for growth. Brazil's December sales increased by 10.2% to 267,000 units, with a full-year total of 2.55 million units, a 2.6% increase year-on-year, reaching a new high since 2019. This growth was supported by the increasing influence of Chinese brands and the progress of electrification.

Argentina saw rapid growth, with December sales increasing by 12.1% to 22,400 units, bringing the total annual sales to 578,000 units, a surge of 48.1% year-on-year and a new high since 2018. The main drivers were the influx of imported models and declining inflation, although the positive effect weakened slightly at the end of the year.

In the commercial vehicle segment, light trucks hold an advantage due to their flexibility and transportation efficiency. Driven by the express delivery and logistics industry, the ratio of heavy trucks to light trucks in China has expanded from the traditional 1:1.5 to nearly 1:2.

This structural change provides a clear direction for the tire industry, requiring it to adjust its layout to align with the commercial vehicle market structure, focus on mainstream demand to optimize supply, and adapt to the development pace of the logistics industry.