Rubber: Divergence Emerges - RU and NR Range-Bound, BR Under Pressure(Sep 23)

Rubber: Divergence Emerges - RU and NR Range-Bound, BR Under Pressure

Market Overview: RU and NR are trading in a range, while BR is declining. The market is changing rapidly and requires flexible responses. Bulls and bears are telling different stories - bulls cite macro expectations and seasonal factors, while bears point to weak demand.

Bullish arguments: Natural rubber bulls believe that the El Nino phenomenon will lead to reduced production, Southeast Asian rubber plantations may see limited output growth, China's demand expectations are improving, and natural rubber is substituting for synthetic rubber.

Bearish arguments: Natural rubber bears argue that macro expectations are deteriorating marginally, demand is weak, supply is increasing slightly, and overall price gains have been excessive.

Industry fundamentals:

On the demand side, as of September 17, 2026, the operating load for all-steel tires was 58.26%, down 3.99 percentage points week-on-week and 6.70 percentage points year-on-year. The operating load for semi-steel tires was 64.70%, down 0.64 percentage points week-on-week and 9.88 percentage points year-on-year. Both all-steel and semi-steel tire factories face inventory pressure.

On the inventory side, as of September 13, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory stood at 1.127 million tons, down 14,000 tons or 1.3% month-on-month.

On the spot side, Thai standard mixed rubber was quoted at 17,950 yuan (unchanged). STR20 was reported at $2,395 (+$5). Butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was at 13,900 yuan (-300). Cis-butadiene rubber in North China was at 15,000 yuan (unchanged).

Strategy: Overall, it is recommended to respond flexibly, trade short-term based on the tape, set stop-losses, and enter and exit quickly. NR and RU are expected to consolidate in a range; maintain a wait-and-see stance as support may emerge below. Crude oil upside remains uncertain. If BR breaks below effective support, consider buying put options on BR.

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