June Rubber & Carbon Black Price Trends
In the rubber and carbon black market in June 2025, the price trend showed a distinct differentiation trend. Natural rubber, synthetic rubber and carbon black, under the influence of their respective supply and demand factors and external environment, performed different market stories.
The price of natural rubber once again exceeded 14,000 yuan per ton in June, an increase of 5% from May, continuing its upward trajectory. Looking back at May, the market prices of Thailand No. 3 smoked rubber sheets (RSS3) and Indonesia No. 20 standard rubber (SIR20) were stable within the month, but the average monthly price increased month-on-month.
Although the spot price of domestic full latex standard rubber (SCRWF) in the main sales areas of China fluctuated downward slightly, it also remained in the range of 13,150-15,150 yuan/ton. Entering June, the price of natural rubber further climbed. From the supply side, although the main production areas in China have started harvesting, the heavy rainfall has affected the rubber collection operation, and the rhythm of new rubber has been hindered.
In terms of major foreign production areas, traditional rubber-producing countries such as Thailand and Indonesia are also facing uncertainties in weather and phenological conditions, which have affected the production of natural rubber. However, the demand side shows a positive side.
The national consumption promotion policy continues to exert force, the market prospects of passenger cars and heavy trucks are good, and the rising temperature drives the expected increase in demand in the tire replacement market. These factors have greatly mobilized the enthusiasm of downstream purchases and strongly supported the price of natural rubber.
The price of major synthetic rubber has remained at a high price of 9,000 to 11,000 yuan due to the rise in crude oil prices caused by the continued escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. On June 13, Israel launched a military attack on Iran, and the international oil market reacted violently in an instant.
The price of London Brent crude oil futures and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures broke through US$78.5 and US$77 respectively during the day, and the closing increase was more than 7%, the largest intraday increase since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis. Synthetic rubber uses crude oil as an important raw material, and the surge in crude oil prices directly drives up the production cost of synthetic rubber.
From the perspective of market expectations, due to the intensified geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the oil market is highly sensitive. Investors are worried about the interruption of crude oil supply and have arranged risk exposure in advance, causing oil prices to rise rapidly in the short term, which in turn provides continuous support for synthetic rubber prices, keeping them fluctuating at a high level.
Although the price of carbon black is in a stable range, it is still above 7,000 yuan per ton. On June 19, the price of carbon black for rubber (N220, used for carbon black for rubber) was quoted at 7,250.00 yuan/ton, maintaining a stable trend. The price of carbon black can remain relatively stable, mainly due to the relative balance of its own supply and demand structure.
On the supply side, the production capacity release of carbon black production enterprises is relatively stable, and has not been strongly impacted by factors such as the weather in natural rubber producing areas and the sharp fluctuations in the price of synthetic rubber raw materials.
On the demand side, although the downstream rubber industry has a continuous demand for carbon black, this demand has not seen an explosive growth or sharp decline.
Downstream industries such as tire companies will adjust their production strategies when facing price fluctuations of natural rubber and synthetic rubber, but the demand for carbon black will remain at a certain level in the short term, allowing the price of carbon black to remain stable at a price of more than 7,000 yuan.
Looking ahead, natural rubber prices may face certain downward pressure due to improved phenological conditions in major production areas at home and abroad and stronger expectations for new rubber supply increments, but the gradual recovery of downstream demand will support prices, and prices are expected to seek a new balance in fluctuations. Synthetic rubber prices will continue to closely follow the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and crude oil price trends.
If the conflict escalates further and oil prices remain high, synthetic rubber prices are expected to rise further; conversely, if the situation eases, prices may fall accordingly. Carbon black prices are likely to continue their current stable trend, and fluctuate within the current price range if downstream demand is stable and there are no major external shocks.
